Why the Luxury Market Is Expected to Return to Growth in 2026

After a prolonged slowdown, the luxury goods industry is showing early signs of recovery. Consumers are gradually returning to purchases of premium apparel, handbags, jewelry, and beauty products, even as geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global economy.

According to a new semi-annual report from Bain & Company released on Thursday, the sector is expected to return to growth in 2026 after two consecutive years of decline.

Luxury Market Expected to Grow in 2026

Bain forecasts global sales of personal luxury goods to increase between 2% and 4% in 2026. The market is projected to reach between 365 billion euros and 373 billion euros ($415 billion to $424 billion), up from 358 billion euros last year.

The recovery is likely to be driven by the Americas, where several U.S. luxury brands reported first-quarter sales growth of up to 15%. The report suggests that consumer demand remains resilient despite economic and political uncertainty in many regions.

Pexels | Earth Photart | Despite global economic uncertainty, US luxury spending is bouncing back with impressive strength.

Claudia D’Arpizio, Bain partner and co-author of the study, highlighted a shift in consumer priorities. “People are still alive and want to live better lives,” she said. “So there is this mega trend of looking for a good quality of life, of improving their lives and finding the meaning and living the experiences that is stronger than the fear of the future.”

The luxury sector faced challenges after years of aggressive price increases, which pushed many buyers away. Now, brands are stabilizing prices and introducing more accessible entry-level products, helping attract customers back to the market.

D’Arpizio described the current environment as “a healthier situation vis-à-vis two years ago.” At the same time, she noted that luxury companies still need to rebuild trust and reconnect with shoppers after what she called a period in which “customer love” had weakened.

Regional Trends Shaping Growth

Bain’s base-case forecast assumes that conflicts in the Middle East remain contained, local spending offsets uneven tourism activity, and demand in China steadily improves. Under this scenario, growth should remain modest but positive.

Pexels | Thành Văn Đình | Younger American consumers under 35 are fueling growth in the casual luxury, jewelry, and beauty sectors.

The report also outlines alternative outcomes. Luxury sales could remain flat if geopolitical risks intensify. On the other hand, easing tensions and stronger-than-expected growth in China could push the sector’s expansion to as much as 6%.

In the United States, younger consumers under 35 are driving demand, particularly for casual luxury fashion, jewelry, and beauty products. China is also expected to return to growth, supported by online sales of ready-to-wear fashion. Europe, meanwhile, continues to face pressure from weaker tourism linked to geopolitical concerns.

The latest Bain outlook points to a cautious but meaningful turnaround for the luxury industry. While global uncertainty remains a factor, many consumers continue to prioritize quality products and experiences.

As D’Arpizio noted, “People want to live a normal life,” a sentiment that appears to be helping the luxury market regain momentum heading into 2026.